The Persistence of True Believers
Leadership
Innovative technologies create new opportunities requiring different strategies. They often create divergent perspectives as people differ on how these breakthroughs should be applied. The pace or trajectory of the technology development also plays a critical role in how people view the rollout of new approaches. In the Bomber Mafia, Malcolm Gladwell chronicles how that debate played out with the introduction of military air power, especially leading up to and during World War II.
Gladwell explores the mindsets that emerged as military leaders considered how best to use the ability to drop bombs from the air, rather than pound their way through the other side’s defenses. The incredible loss of human life in World War I through trench warfare motivated planners on both sides to find a different approach.
The “Bomber Mafia” refers to a group of US Air Force officers in the 1930s who saw air power as a way to fight a war with fewer casualties on all sides. They theorized the enemy’s ability to wage war could be destroyed by attacking infrastructure and the factories that produced military supplies. They strongly believed causalities would not only be lowered, but the length of war would be dramatically shortened.
However, the British Air Command had very different ideas. They saw the advantages of “area bombing” that inflicted both military and civilian casualties. They felt the indiscriminate nature of this approach created a high level of anxiety across society and would therefore remove the public’s support for war (although the German attempt at bombing London seem to strengthen the British resolve). The opposing views created tension between the two allies as they needed to develop a unified strategy.
However, there was another more practical challenge to the American approach. Precision bombing, as opposed to area bombing, requires you to see your targets. This means you must bomb during the day, which places your bombers in much greater peril. And even if you can see, you have to release your bombs at exactly the right moment to hit your target. This required the development of a bombsight that could operate in the challenging conditions of a bomber flying through anti-aircraft fire.
The Americans believed the introduction of the Norden Bombsight was the game-changing technology that would make their version of air power a reality. With a bombsight, you can fly at higher and safer altitudes, and you can hit what you see.
The American Air Force finally got approval to attempt a daylight precision bombing run against Germany. It was a disaster. The raid resulted in a staggering loss of aircraft and almost no damage to the intended target, a ball-bearing factory. Of the two thousand bombs dropped, only 80 found their target. They discovered the Norden Bombsight required almost perfect conditions to operate with the precision needed. The environment in a bomber under fire in changing temperatures lead to mechanical modifications and operator error. Additionally, a cloudy day would be enough to prevent pilots from seeing the target.
However, the Bomber Mafia steadfastly believed daylight bombing was the solution to ending the war quickly, and scheduled another bombing run with a similar approach. The result was marginally more successful than the first. While it did inflict a bit more damage to the targets, a quarter of the crews did not make it back.
Part of Gladwell’s story focuses on how you respond when what you are so certain to be true does not match reality. The Bomber Mafia recognized their failures, but they could not abandon their beliefs. One reason is that they simply couldn’t embrace the pain and suffering created by indiscriminate bombings of civilians. They also remained optimistic they could find the solution. This seems common with the promise that new technologies can be improved rapidly. They believed they could build better bombers and better bombsights.
Gladwell picks up the story in the Pacific Theatre where the Allied forces had recently captured islands close enough to bomb Japan. The commanding officer of the bombing operation, Haywood Hansel, is a leading member of the Bomber Mafia and he has at his disposal a better bomber, the B-29. He still believes deeply in the promise of daylight bombing. Unfortunately, the results are again disappointing. On the initial bombing runs, his crews inflict minimal damage to their intended targets. The predominantly cloudy days and the wind speeds around Mount Fiji make it impossible to properly use the bombsight.
The pressure on the air raids increases as the war turns to its final phase and the desire to avoid a land invasion of Japan grows. Hansell is ordered to change tactics and launch a napalm attack on a Japanese city. He chooses not to do it. Historian Stephen McFarland writes, “he was truly a thoughtful, caring individual. And he was a true believer, but he was not the kind of man who was willing to kill hundreds of thousands of people. He just didn’t have it. Didn’t have it in his soul.”
And because of that, Hansell is replaced by Curtis LeMay, who holds to a set of different beliefs from the Bomber Mafia. One historian writes, “If Hansell was inflexible, a man of principle, LeMay was the opposite.” LeMay believes anything that reduces the war by a day saves lives. He initially tries to follow Hansell’s precision approach to determine if it is doable. He experiences the same results as Hansell and reaches the conclusion he must have a strategy that is independent of the weather. This means low-altitude bombing at night using napalm on military and civilian targets. It is a high-risk and high-reward strategy that pays off for LeMay and causes an incredible loss of life for the Japanese.
It is also the opposite of the Bomber Mafia’s core belief about how to conduct war. Even LeMay’s superiors and colleagues didn’t seem to grasp the scale of destruction caused by firebombing cities. No one seemed concerned about limiting LeMay’s actions as he relentlessly bombed minor cities with no direct military ties.
History gives much more attention to the decision to drop the atomic bomb as the game-changing technology that led to Japan’s surrender. LeMay saw it differently. The firebombing campaign had already done the needed damage. He achieved his higher purpose to end the war as soon as possible regardless of the costs.
However, Gladwell concludes that it is Hansell and the Bomber Mafia that move us because of their desire to be “moral in a modern world.” He writes, “They persisted, even in the face of technology’s inevitable misdirection, even when abandoning their dreams offered a quicker path to victory, even when Satan offered them all the world if only they would renounce their faith. Without persistence, principles are meaningless. Because one day your dream may come true. And if you cannot keep that dream alive in the interim, then who are you?”
The Bomber Mafia’s vision was proved the right one in the end, just not the right one for their current technology. At the time, their desire to use precision bombing was unfortunately not feasible and the Allies were forced to turn to Curtis LeMay’s more indiscriminate strategy. By now, targeting and flight technology has advanced to the point where their goals can finally be realized. It is possible to use precision drone strikes against specific targets in order to reduce civilian casualties. The vision was correct, but the timing was off.
To hold fast to your beliefs when the current reality tells a different story is the required pathway for almost all breakthroughs. It is in these moments when our character and our values are truly revealed.